Real Estate

How to counteract Gary Keller’s latest recession prediction: The Download

No one can predict the future, but you can prepare. Find out what to prepare for and pick up the tools you’ll need at the immersive Virtual Inman Connect on Nov. 1-2, 2023. And don’t miss Inman Connect New York on Jan. 23-25, 2024, where AI, capital, and more will be center stage. Bet big on the roaring future, and join us at Connect.

Each week on The Download, Inman’s Christy Murdock takes a deeper look at the top-read stories of the week to give you what you’ll need to meet Monday head-on. This week: In opening remarks at Keller Williams’ Agent Mega Camp, Gary Keller predicted a “rolling recession” in 2024. What is it and what does it mean for you and your clients?

It seems like only yesterday we were heaving a sigh of relief as economists started backing off their recession warnings. Now, however, Gary Keller is offering up his own economic assessment, predicting something he calls a “rolling recession” in the months ahead.

In a data-heavy opening address at Agent Mega Camp, Keller and his team outlined their view of a segmented slowdown in various sectors. It’s not the news that agents or brokers were hoping to hear, especially during a year that has already seen a sluggish first half.

Need a little good news? Keller also predicted a coming “millennial wave” that will boost demand as the “greatest wealth transfer in the history of the world” tees up.

On Tuesday morning, the Austin Convention Center — frequently the site of rock shows, comic book conventions and corporate conferences — sounded more like a thunderstorm sweeping down the plains as Keller Williams returned to its Texas roots for the brokerage’s annual Agent Mega Camp event this week.

There Gary Keller laid out an analysis of the current and upcoming economy, along with his prediction of a “rolling recession” where specific sectors of the market suffer and others continue on as normal.

“You can write this down: ‘If I’m wrong, I’m wrong,’” Keller said. “I truly believe that we’re headed towards something I’ve never seen before and that is a rolling recession. Meaning that sectors in the economy, one’s doing well while another one’s not.”

In his wide-ranging remarks, he also called out the media’s coverage of the housing market as a factor in its current struggles. Although he recognizes the headwinds that face buyers and sellers, he said the media’s reporting of home sales, home prices and other market indicators have pushed buyers and sellers into a “fool’s game” of trying to time the market.

Money matters and the complexity of the economy make some peoples’ eyes glaze over, while others are always digging into the data and trying to figure out how to predict what’s next. While the only thing that’s certain is uncertainty, it’s still a good idea to stay informed so that your financial decisions are based on a solid foundation.

Whether you’re an armchair expert or just trying to find your next client, I want to make sure that you’ve got a handle on the latest economic data and consumer sentiment. Beyond that, it’s important to have talking points for overcoming objections and even some extra insight into long-term financial trends. This week’s Download provides all the tools you need to weather whatever’s ahead.

Q2 2023 earnings roundup: A shift away from growth at all costs

While we know that the stock market doesn’t tell the whole story of the economy at large, it contributes to consumer sentiment and can offer an indicator of where the financial world is heading. Check out the latest earnings-related news to see how your brokerage or favorite real estate-related investment fared in the second quarter of 2023.

Record number of Americans say it’s a bad time to buy

Americans remain confident about their own finances, but more than 8 out of 10 think it’s a bad time to buy a home, according to a monthly survey of consumers by mortgage giant Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey is a representative telephone survey of 1,000 homeowners and renters, 84 percent of whom said July was a bad time to buy — a record in polling data going back to 2010.

(Inman’s Mortgage Editor Matt Carter is always on top of the latest numbers and the way they’re impacting the housing market. Don’t miss his coverage of the mortgage industry and his weekly Mortgage Brief newsletter.)

5 ways to encourage buyers in the current market

In today’s market, you may be coming up against buyer hesitation as interest rates remain elevated. Your challenge is to inspire buyers — compel them to buy and convey the advantages. Here are Mauricio Umansky’s tips for doing just that so that you can secure new business in any market.

Does this financial analyst have an economic crystal ball?

While Gary Keller offers his predictions for the economic future, he’s not the only one. Could an obscure chart provide a roadmap for investment? Bernice Ross talks with money mentor Chris Naugle about a little-known pattern of economic trends dating back to the 19th century. Find out how to put it to work for you and let it inform your financial strategy.

EXTRA: How Harvard’s housing report sees the current (and future) market

Email Christy Murdock

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