Economy
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Labour, a supply side explanation for the rise of populism, and the growing acceptability of xenophobic discourse in the UK
I never cease to be amazed at how bad Labour politicians are at politics. It may seem arrogant for an economist to say that, but it’s not just my view, but the view of so many of the political scientists or journalists that I follow. Take, for example, the recent fall in net migration numbers, from a high point…
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The Budget suggests the Chancellor is thinking too much about short term management and too little about long term legacy
My posts come out on a Tuesday and Budgets are on a Wednesday. Not great timing, which is why in the past I’ve often done special posts one or two days after the budget. But so much of last Wednesday’s budget had been pre-announced that it didn’t seem worth doing this last week. So the question is whether there…
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Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
It is now generally (although not universally) accepted that those of us who campaigned vigorously against the government’s austerity policy from 2010 were right, and the media and the political near consensus at the time that austerity was the right thing to do was horribly wrong. In particular, during a period when interest rates were on the floor the…
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mainly macro: Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies
The government’s latest proposed revamp of asylum laws reminds us that Labour have not abandoned their approach of using right wing populist policies and rhetoric to appeal to Reform voters. Let’s call this the Blue Labour electoral strategy. The introduction of some new safe routes is welcome, but how effective or limited these will be remains open. What has…
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Labour’s Brexit stance is as untenable as their tax pledge
In my last post about the prospect of Labour breaking its tax pledge, I did something I don’t often do, which is indulge in some ‘I told you so’s. In doing this I was reminded that there was one other major criticism I had of Labour’s initial economic strategy besides their underestimation of how much taxes they would need…
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Belgium Seeking Young Troops | Armstrong Economics
Belgium abolished mandatory military service in 1995, operating with an all-volunteer military force. The defense department has been keenly interested in recruiting young men to join since it became apparent that Belgium would become involved in the Russia-Ukraine-NATO war. Defense Minister Theo Francken issued a message on X: “All 17-year-olds in the country are encouraged to learn about the Ministry…
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Operation Arctic Frost — BIDEN’S WATERGATE
Just received this doc frm DOJ Proof that Biden Atty General Merrick Garland+ Deputy Atty General Lisa Monaco+ FBI Dir Chris Wray all PERSONALLY APPROVED opening Arctic Frost This investigation unleashed unchecked govt power at the highest levels My oversight will continue pic.twitter.com/atuRnC8ara — Chuck Grassley (@ChuckGrassley) October 23, 2025 Paranoia surrounding the security of Joe Biden’s presidency reverberated throughout the…
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What the call for fiscal headroom reveals
Everyone, including the IFS, is agreed that the Chancellor should in the budget create more fiscal headroom than she did previously. Rather than match forecasts for taxes to expected current spending (plus or minus ten billion, say), she should aim for forecast taxes to be significantly more above expected current spending, to allow for headroom against unforeseen negative shocks.…
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mainly macro: Populism and Economic Prosperity
Mainstream political parties normally claim that populist parties, if they ever got to power, would damage the economy. We have clear evidence that they are right, and right in a big way. A paper in the American Economic Review (one of the top economics journals) published nearly two years ago, looked at the macroeconomic consequences of populist regimes coming…
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PRIVATE BLOG – Gold into the Crosshairs
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