Economy
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mainly macro: A Post Neoliberal Consensus
. Dani Rodrik recently wrote an article entitled “The Post-Neoliberal Consensus is here”. He argues that it comprises three elements: the concentration of economic power has become excessive restoring dignity to people and regions that neoliberalism left behind, which in particular involves providing good jobs The government has an active role to play in intervening in the market economy…
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What kind of crisis would a bursting AI bubble become?
In this post I’m not going to speculate about whether the current boom in AI infrastructure (mainly data centres, mainly in the US) is a bubble or not, but rather ask what would happen if it was and, as bubbles do, it burst. [1] What kind of impact might this have on the world economy? There are three main…
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Venezuelans Rejoice – Socialism Failed Yet Again
Thousands of Venezuelans go out in La Vega, a popular area of Caracas to celebrate the fall of Nicolás Maduro and the victory of Edmundo González. The eyes of the world are on Venezuela. ?? pic.twitter.com/3uMAND74TT — MJTruthUltra (@MJTruthUltra) July 29, 2024 The people of Venezuela are celebrating Maduro’s departure. Those who have lived under socialism understand the depths of…
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United We Stand – 2.5 Million Readers – 232 Countries
As we close out 2025, I want to personally thank the more than 2.5 million readers from around the world who visited ArmstrongEconomics.com this year. Your willingness to question official narratives, examine history, and think independently is what keeps this site alive and relevant. Our content is based on following the data, the cycles, and the models wherever they lead,…
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Understanding the rise of the populist far right
This is a follow-up to last week’s post. Occasionally I receive comments on social media that point me to academic analysis that I wasn’t aware of, particularly on an issue that is not macroeconomics. Last week was one of these occasions (thanks to @yusufimaadkhan.com), and it allows me to expand on what I wrote to give it wider scope.…
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Labour, a supply side explanation for the rise of populism, and the growing acceptability of xenophobic discourse in the UK
I never cease to be amazed at how bad Labour politicians are at politics. It may seem arrogant for an economist to say that, but it’s not just my view, but the view of so many of the political scientists or journalists that I follow. Take, for example, the recent fall in net migration numbers, from a high point…
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The Budget suggests the Chancellor is thinking too much about short term management and too little about long term legacy
My posts come out on a Tuesday and Budgets are on a Wednesday. Not great timing, which is why in the past I’ve often done special posts one or two days after the budget. But so much of last Wednesday’s budget had been pre-announced that it didn’t seem worth doing this last week. So the question is whether there…
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Expertise, Government, the Media and Covid
It is now generally (although not universally) accepted that those of us who campaigned vigorously against the government’s austerity policy from 2010 were right, and the media and the political near consensus at the time that austerity was the right thing to do was horribly wrong. In particular, during a period when interest rates were on the floor the…
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mainly macro: Blue Labour’s Electoral Fallacies
The government’s latest proposed revamp of asylum laws reminds us that Labour have not abandoned their approach of using right wing populist policies and rhetoric to appeal to Reform voters. Let’s call this the Blue Labour electoral strategy. The introduction of some new safe routes is welcome, but how effective or limited these will be remains open. What has…
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Labour’s Brexit stance is as untenable as their tax pledge
In my last post about the prospect of Labour breaking its tax pledge, I did something I don’t often do, which is indulge in some ‘I told you so’s. In doing this I was reminded that there was one other major criticism I had of Labour’s initial economic strategy besides their underestimation of how much taxes they would need…
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